Yesterday I listened to the latest episode of my favorite podcast. I learned of Nassim Nicholas Taleb and 'Fooled By Randomness'. I'd be lying if I said I understood it all. But what I did get I found to be profound. Highly recommended.
EconTalk, Taleb on Black Swans: Library of Economics and Liberty
"Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. " http://www.econtalk.org/archives/200..._on_black.html
OpinionJournal - Leisure & Arts
"Mr. Taleb is fascinated by the rare but pivotal events that characterize life in the power-law world. He calls them Black Swans, after the philosopher Karl Popper's observation that only a single black swan is required to falsify the theory that "all swans are white" even when there are thousands of white swans in evidence. Provocatively, Mr. Taleb defines Black Swans as events (such as the rise of the Internet or the fall of LTCM) that are not only rare and consequential but also predictable only in retrospect. We never see them coming, but we have no trouble concocting post hoc explanations for why they should have been obvious. Surely, Mr. Taleb taunts, we won't get fooled again. But of course we will." http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110009979